Inclusion of Systematic Uncertainties in Upper Limits and Hypothesis Tests
نویسنده
چکیده
The problem of including systematic uncertainties in upper limits on Poisson processes and in hypothesis tests is solved in a consistent and straightforward way if the uncertain quantities are treated probabilistically. This is illustrated through examples taken from the searches for new particles at ZEUS.
منابع مشابه
Limits, discovery and cut optimization for a Poisson process with uncertainty in background and signal efficiency: TRolke 2.0
A C++ class was written for the calculation of frequentist confidence intervals using the profile likelihood method. Seven combinations of Binomial, Gaussian, Poissonian and Binomial uncertainties are implemented. The package provides routines for the calculation of upper and lower limits, sensitivity and related properties. It also supports hypothesis tests which take uncertainties into accoun...
متن کاملSystematics and Limit Calculations
This note discusses the estimation of systematic uncertainties and their incorporation into upper limit calculations. Two different approaches to reducing systematics and their degrading impact on upper limits are introduced. An improved χ function is defined which is useful in comparing Poisson distributed data with models marginalized by systematic uncertainties. Also, a technique using profi...
متن کاملCalculation of Cross Section Upper Limits Combining Channels Incorporating Correlated and Uncorrelated Systematic Uncertainties
A common problem arising in new particle search experiments is to determine upper limits on a signal cross section, combining more than one channel (for example e and μ) and incorporating the effects of systematic errors, which may or may not be correlated across channels. This note describes a Bayesian procedure for performing such a calculation.
متن کاملUpper Limits on Poisson Processes
This note presents a technique for the calculation of upper limits on Poisson processes at some desired conndence level given a certain number of observed events, an expected number of background events, and uncertainty on both the overall acceptance and the expected background. This hybrid frequentist/Bayes technique represents the standard adopted by the CDF Collaboration in presenting the re...
متن کاملP o S ( A C A T ) 0 5 9 Bayesian Upper Limit for Poisson Variable Yongsheng
To calculate the upper limit for the Poisson observable at given confidence level with inclusion of systematic uncertainties in background expectation and signal efficiency, formulations have been established along the line of Bayesian approach. A FORTRAN program, BPULE, has been developed to implement the upper limit calculation.
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
دوره شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2000